Blog Post 1-
Not Past Their Prime
Joe Posnanski’s article “Aging (with chart!)” examines
the ages at which MVPs and MVP candidates had their “good seasons”. Posnanski’s
chart and research certify that most players’ great seasons occur when they are
in their mid-to-late 20s, however Posnanski argues further that although many
great players peak at this age they then maintain the gained skill level for
some years after. From Posnanski’s attempt at a chart, it can even be noted
that more players had their best seasons at age 36 than at age 20. Joe Morgan,
for example had his best years at age 31 and 32, even though he was considered
a failure briefly at age 25 for hitting .236.
This article presents the overlaying question of “How
smart is it to sign a player for big money into his mid-to-upper 30s?”
(Posnanski, 2012). Just as Billy Beane
observed the scouts of the Oakland A’s and scouts of the entire league putting
unreasonable faith into young high school players, similarly “old” players are
unreasonably stigmatized as past their peak and no longer as valuable after a
certain age. In Michael Lewis’ Moneyball,
Billy Beane is able to gain unimagined success by utilizing the evident
skills rather than rely on potential skills that young players may develop. The appeal of the young players is their
potential to improve, and of course the innocent and promising good looks. Once a player has reached his peak, the thrill
of the prospect is lost and thus the high value that has been earned is often
forgotten.
Billy Beane uses statistics to choose his favorite
players, regardless of age, yet Henry J. Waugh of Coover’s The Universal Baseball Association buys into the myth. Waugh is
deeply disturbed by the death of young Damon Rutherford. The freak accident that killed this fantasy
player particularly upsets Waugh because Damon showed so much promise. Would this accident have bothered Waugh as
much if it had been a 31 year old star that was killed?
Like body type, arm movement, facial features, and eating
habits, age should not be such a determining factor in a player’s value. Although
Joe Pasnanski’s chart shows a definite peak in player ability in the mid 20s,
this ability does not immediately disappear once it is mastered.
Source- joeposnanski.si.com/2012/02/10/aging-with-chart/
I find it completely irrational that players are devalued at a certain age. Although they eventually pass their peak, it IS evident that players are still relatively good into their mid (or in some cases, late) thirties. Even this week, Maddie's Baseball Blog ( http://maddiesbaseballblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/risky-business.html?showComment=1329428564034#c943465637191241328 ) mentions the Oakland A's looking to sign 39 year-old Manny Ramirez. If he wasnt a good ball player, why would they hire him? Like many other sports, players do pass their prime, but their experience is often overlooked.
ReplyDeleteAs to your question, I would like to think that Waugh would have been just as bothered if an older player was killed. After all, what does an emotional attatchment have to do with age? Sadly, I think that Waugh was so fond of Damon because he was so young and full of potential. It seems in society, people are more upset when the young die compared to older people because the young never truly get to live.
One of the things that Joe Po is addressing is the fact that players tend to OVERVALUED as they age. Far from being undervalued, traditionally players earn high salaries as they head into their late 30s even though they are almost always getting worse by then. For every player who ages well (through steroids or otherwise) there are dozens who do not. The Moneyball point is that you should not pay older players for having been good in the past and in the gambler's hope that they might beat the odds and play well again.
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